What would happen if the US did not bomb Japan, does this guess make sense?

My guess would be Japan would have its resource problems become worse and worse. Island hopping would probably resume and free islands in East Asia from Japanese control. After Operation August Storm, the Soviets will probably free a lot more of the mainland of Asia than they did. Operation Downfall could happen or negotiations for ending the war probably would happen if Operation Downfall doesn't happen. What would happen?